Relative Timing

As you know I like to ponder on some of the messages and what they actually mean - particularly in mediums such as advertising and how facts can be twisted and presented with such stark differences. A conversation on the radio prompted me to think of this again. For example, which of these sounds more likely to happen: (1) something happens to an American on average once every ten years, or (2) every second the same thing happens to an American.

The answer is - perhaps surprisingly - exactly the same. With a current USA population of 313.9 million, and a total of 31.5 million seconds in a year something that (cue Daily Mail style capital letter alarmist headlines) AFFECTS ONE AMERICAN EVERY SECOND ... is the exact same as something that only happens to an American on average once every ten years. Something that happens (cue headlines again) AFFECTS ONE AMERICAN EVERY TEN SECONDS? Happens once in one hundred years.

Basically, we're not very good at handling large numbers. And we can't compare between big and small numbers - so tend to think something happening over a small period MUST be big over a large period.