A Long, Serious Post

Okay, my first update for a long time, as I've not been seriously blogging for a while it would appear. And this is going to be long, so Emma, you have been warned.

I wanted to write a bit about the whole Middle East situation, which seems to be gradually spiralling out of control and into general chaos and absurdity. I don't quite know why this has happened, or why it is continuing, but it's apparant to me at least that the longer it goes on, the worse it becomes.

In the context of a wider Middle East, the situation is absurd. Israel, pushing to strengthen itself and weaken Hezbollah, is pursuing the one course of action that is reliably strengthening Hezbollah beyond all belief. The Shia group is now recieving supports from Sunni Arabs and even Christians in Lebanon, for being percieved as much more 'in the right' than Israel, and resisting the oppressors.

There's almost certainly a saying to the extent that the one thing that will unite different groups more than anything else is a common foe. And if there isn't, then I'm claiming it as mine.

But this is the exact opposite of what Israel want to achieve. In an attempt to destroy and utterly eradicate Hezbollah, they are legitimising it from a terrorist group into a legitimate resistance force.

Against this, of course, is the eternal background picture of the Palestine issue that has never been solved. And it will not continue to be solved if this is the case. Israel is pursuing a self-fulfilling prophecy; believe that everyone is against you, act as if they are against you and not worry what they think, and soon they will all be against you. This conflict is turning moderate Arabs in the region against Israel; those who tolerated it now oppose it or resent it. Those who opposed it now urge its eradication.

It is noticeable how the US and Israel are both so insistent to demand implementation of UN Resolution 1559, the removal of Hezbollah from the border area, but there has been no comment on the many resolutions ignored by Israel, such as those requiring it to withdraw from the Golan Heights, to stop building settlements, to withdraw from the West Bank, to cease the building of the anacronymic "security barrier".

This continues to produce the perception of the international community as being either impotent or biased. The quoted 40 uses of the US Security Council veto (more than all the uses of all the other members) on resolutions aimed against Israel over the last twenty years is the most obvious example.

There is a natural chain of events, that I would hesitate to call an inevitability, but increasingly seems that way. The lack of international pressure on Israel and lopsided requirement from concesssions with Israeli-PLO negotiations has rendered the latter group impotent; the PA a shell of an organisation in its own country. Faced with the lack of international pressure for a fair and even-handed settlement, and the PLO and PA helpless to do this on their own, the people of Palestine and the wider Middle East will naturally look for those who promise to achieve something.

And that is why Hamas won the Palestinian elections. Which is why Hezbollah has such support. In a recent discussion on this, I termed it as the ultimate protest vote; they have no other option to turn to if they want their own sovereign nation. It is our actions that have led to Hamas and Hezbollah having such power in the region, because it is the last hope of the populace. There is noone else to turn to. Of course, the concept is futile; the Israelis will deal no more with Hamas than it will with the PLO. If it doesn't want to deal with secularised Arab nationalists, why will it treat with militant Islamic fundamentalists?

Everything is linked to everything else, and in this conflict there is a cyclical tendancy. One of the most interesting things I read over the last few weeks is that of the origins of Hezbollah. In the original resistance to the 1978 & 1982 Israeli invasions of Lebanon, there were two groups; Hezbollah was founded in the aftermath and soon surpassed the existing Dawa group. Dawa are a small and relatively inconsequential group, that would be called either resistance or terrorist depending on your perspective; but the relevance of this is more interesting. One of the leaders of Dawa was none other than Nouri al-Maliki; the new Iraqi Prime Minister. Truly today's terrorist is tomorrow's statesman as perspectives and needs change.

My opinion on the entire matter is very clear. There are two sides that don't want a solution. The Israelis do not want a solution; any negotiated solution would not be benificial to them; forcing them to concede the land they currently occupy in the Golan Heights, Sheeba Farms area and the West Bank, as well as being forced to dismantle settlements in the latter and recognise Palestinian sovereignty over borders, land and airspace.

I cannot see any Israeli government being so willing to commit political suicide to achieve this. Any political party which did this would be finished. It would require a pyhrric victory to do this. Likewise, while the groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, and the many others, claim they want a settlement; they are quite happy with recruiting and gaining in stature and support by the prolonged and continual conflict. It is normalising the extremes and hardening viewpoints. Internationally, the only nation able to place sufficient pressure on Israel are the USA; and with the influential Israeli lobbyists in Congress, and the religious electorate consequences, no government is going to force the Israelis to the table and to concede ground; hoping instead that some settlement can be reached by the use of military force. Although why it should work after over six decades of near-continual military struggle is an enigma.

So everyone involved is quite happy to see the conflict perpetuate. And the civilians on both sides are the ones who pay for it. The citizens of Palestine, of Lebanon, of Israel; they pay for the political consequences that determine the actions. While the world idly watches these pawns on chessboards not of their choosings.



A handful of articles I found interesting, in case anyone is interested in some more wider reading:
The Cracks Are Opening - Gideon Levy (Republished in the Guardian, originally taken from Ha'aretz)
Morality Is Not On Our Side - Ze'ev Maoz (Ha'aretz)
Lessons from wartime, to be applied on a better day - Editorial (Lebanese Daily Star)
Snub signals Lebanese fury at US - Nadim Ladki (Dawn, Pakistan)
Nasrallah: a hero forged in the fires Israel built - Patrick Cockburn (Gulf Times, Qatar)